Presidential Election Prediction
Prediction 308 to 230 Electoral Votes
Please feel free to share your own predictions in the comments! You can create your own map like I did by clicking here.
This year, I do not have a strong feeling about who will win the Presidential election. Two weeks ago, I thought Trump was leading most if not all the swing states. The past week, I took closer look at polling, early voting, and the ground game of the two major party campaigns has led me to the following prediction:
Harris 308 Trump 230
(270 Needed To Win)
Polling indicates a very slight Trump advantage. If the polls are off by what they were in 2016 or 2020, Trump wins. If they are off by what they were in 2022, Harris wins.
It is my belief that there is a polling error that will benefit Kamala Harris. If my belief is accurate, Trump would win Arizona, but all the other swing states (Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) should go to Harris.
The easiest path for Harris is to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If she wins those three, she would win (270-268) without picking up another swing state. That said, either Trump or her are likely to win by a larger margin than this depending on which way the polls are wrong.
Iowa Poll Surprise
As a former Iowan, I know how accurate Ann Selzer’s polls usually are. The only time I can remember where her poll didn’t accurately predict the winner was the race I ran for Governor in. So many pollsters are terrified of getting it wrong that they won’t put out polls that look like outliers. They attempt to weight the polls in such a way that they may unintentionally miss a surge in specific voters.
Selzer is not one to let her polls be influenced by public opinion. In 2014, she was probably the only pollster that predicted a huge win for Republican Joni Ernst in her US Senate race. She was criticized and even I said there was no way. She ended up being the one to get it right.
The other day when Selzer released her Des Moines Register poll that had Harris up 3, I was amused by the attacks on her for being a left leaning never Trumper considering he won in her 2016 and 2020 Iowa polls bigger than most polls were showing.
Now, I don’t believe Harris will win Iowa, but I do believe Selzer may have found some indication that Harris could be doing better than polls suggest particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Let me know your predictions
This is all fun and I also wouldn’t be surprised if Trump won by a similar margin. What are your thoughts?