The Libertarian National Committee Funds Conservative Candidates- Part 3

Whydunit- Why the LNC funded Conservative MAGA supporting candidates while shafting Libertarians

Photo by Dalton Caraway on Unsplash

Part 1, I covered the howdunit, detailing how the Libertarian National Committee funded lawsuits of two Trump-supporting Republicans to get on the ballot as Libertarians in Pennsylvania.

Part 2, I covered whodunit, by showing who voted to approve the funding of these two candidates.

In this final piece, the whydunit, I detail why the LNC voted to fund these two Republican candidates at the expense of libertarian ballot access races.

Trust. Don’t Bother To Verify

At the August 25, 2022, LNC Executive Committee meeting, TJ Kosin, who was appointed to the LNC Candidate Support Committee this year and is husband to candidate Brittany Kosin, and the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania advocated for the LNC to fund the Pennsylvania lawsuits.

It should be noted that the funding was not done or advocated by the new LNC Candidate Support Committee.

Mr. Kosin claimed that the campaign had an internal poll that showed them winning the election, influencing one LNC member.

Treasurer Todd Hagopian replied to my second Substack with this tweet:

Libertarian-In-Chief @ToddHagopian

@jakedporter In my email, I say the “rare strategic race that forwards our party’s standing.” Past LNCs have spent tens of thousands of dollars getting a state rep elected. My yes votes all either had a legitimate shot at winning or had ballot access implications. I stand by my email

Todd’s email:

I respect Todd a lot, but I vehemently disagree. He voted for funding Kosin and not Avery because of the claims by Kosin's campaign that she was likely to win.

First, internal polling is known to be highly unreliable. Second, there is some recent controversy with Mr. Kosin (although debating the validity of the allegations is well beyond the scope of this Substack). Third, we have to ask if winning is the only objective.

Bryan Elliott asked some excellent questions about the polling. Mr. Kosin explained polling was conducted by canvassing. Door-to-door canvassing isn't considered scientific polling. This method is a highly unreliable method of collecting polling data. Many biases could easily skew results when attempting to conduct data analysis.

Below are just a few leading questions I would have if I served on the LNC Executive Committee:

• Selection Bias- Were the responses random or even from registered or likely voters?

• Statistical significance- Were enough voters sampled?

• Time of day- Were voters canvassed at a time of day when they could answer? Were certain groups left out, such as people who work nights?

• Analysis- How was the data handled and analyzed?

• What questions were asked, and were they leading questions to increase the chances of getting a specific outcome? Example: push polling.

There was also a claim that they had access to Republican internal polling through the GOP canvassing efforts. If I was running a campaign and was told my candidate was winning, I would follow it up by purchasing an independent poll that I knew was statistically valid.

Lack of supporting evidence and inadequate detail leaves the LNC susceptible to grift or over-optimistic projections by future candidates requesting funding. After nearly two decades of doing this work, I have heard dozens of candidates make similar claims about internal/unscientific polling data and finish their races with less than 5 percent on Election Day.

Additionally, how far from principle does the Libertarian Party want to go to win? Nominating and funding failed old party candidates who are not libertarians to "win" elections? That seems like a poorly thought-out strategy and is what I hoped the Mises caucus would fix in the party. It sounds like it is still acceptable to sell out for votes.

According to Mr. Kosin, Avery and Kosin had their signatures challenged but withdrew their Republican candidacies before going to court. Not weighing the legal merits of the lawsuit, it doesn't give me confidence that either candidate had a philosophical change and wasn't just trying to use the Libertarian Party ballot line.

Secretary Caryn Ann Harlos said she wanted to fund this to fight the state on sore loser laws and use it for PR and fundraising opportunities. Before voting, she asked some pointed questions about the money needed by the LNC to fund the two lawsuits.

How did the Libertarian National Committee members individually vote:

The LNC is planning another candidate support fundraiser in the middle of the month. They have set a "modest goal of $10,000" split among the candidates. Maybe they would have more money for vetted Libertarian candidates if they hadn't funded this failed lawsuit to put Republicans on the ballot.

The full video of the LNC Executive Committee Meeting is below.
Start at around 1:10:00